ESPN's Bracket Challenge By The Numbers

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

I love these stat based press releases that ESPN puts out. I just picture an intern having to sit at his desk for three days, counting all of the data, and then sending the spreadsheet to the PR Department, so they can put it into words. Either way, the data always amazes, and today's is everything about the selections YOU made on your Bracket Challenge sheet. There are over 5 million entries, and so far only eight are picked exactly correct (mine is not one of them....stupid Wake Forest). Here are some of the more interesting facts....

* 6 entries (0%) predict that Arizona, Purdue, Gonzaga and Xavier will advance to the Final Four;
* 459,038 entries (9.9%) predicted all four top-seeded teams - Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Louisville and Connecticut – will advance to the Final Four
* 80,931 entries (1.7%) predicted Arizona, Purdue, Missouri and Gonzaga would reach the Sweet 16;
* 3,925,017 entries (84.8%) predicted that all four top-seeded teams – Connecticut, North Carolina, Pittsburgh and Louisville - would advance to the Sweet Sixteen;
* 28,791 entries (.6%) predicted that Cal State Northridge would defeat Memphis in the first round;
* 1,339,080 entries (28.9%) incorrectly predicted Wake Forest and Washington would reach the Sweet Sixteen;
* 11,115 entries (.2%) predicted Oklahoma, Memphis, Michigan State and Duke advancing to the Final Four
* 382,802 entries (8.3%) predicted USC would defeat Michigan State in the Second Round;
* 1,511,193 entries (32.6%) predict Syracuse will defeat Oklahoma in the Sweet Sixteen;
* 207,520 entries (4.5%) predict Xavier will defeat Pittsburgh in the Sweet Sixteen;
* 86,663 entries (1.9%) predicted Purdue and Missouri advancing to the Elite Eight;
* 6,817 entries (.1%) predict Gonzaga and Purdue meeting in the Final Four;
* 536 entries (.1%) predict Xavier and Arizona meeting in the Final Four.
If Arizona plays Xavier, or Purdue plays Gonzaga, for the Championship....I will quit writing this site entirely. Actually, I won't, but you get what I'm saying. People, and their brackets, continue to amaze me every year.


"There are over 5 million entries, and so far only eight are picked exactly correct"

Huh? I thought there weren't any perfect entries left. According to the leaderboard, the guy in first has 620 out of a possible 640.

Vegas Watch said...
Mar 25, 2009, 12:50:00 PM  

Here's a stat for you. The odds of having a perfect bracket: 1 in over 9.2 quintillion!

Exact number: 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 (the number of possible brackets)


Justin F. said...
Mar 25, 2009, 2:18:00 PM  

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