Todd McShay Is Slowly Getting Worse At Predicting Draft Picks

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

I mentioned before the draft how pointless Mock Drafts are and I think this bit of info from JSF proves that. The heir apparent to ESPN's Draft coverage Todd McShay did worse this year than he did last year. He went from 9.1% correct to 6.7%....seriously.

Out of the first 135 picks, Todd McShay picked nine for an accuracy percentage of 6.67%. In the biggest surprise of the day, McShay actually nailed one in the fourth round - Cody Wallace to the 49ers at pick #107 - no doubt by complete stroke of luck.

Defending champ Mel Kiper picked a whopping eight correct, leaving him at a sterling 5.93% accuracy rate. For all the research Kiper does throughout the year, the last pick he got correct was #22, Felix Jones to the Cowboys. That made him zero for his last 113.

It's even more impressive if you add that draftee Matt Ryan correctly picked the first six picks of the draft. Something that neither Mel or Todd could do. I'm not ragging on them for their horrible mock drafts (it's f'ing hard to predict over 200 picks), but pointing out the stupidity of doing so. Sure Mock Drafts are fun, but there's not a chance in hell you're going to be right.

With that said, let's enjoy Todd's 2009 Mock Draft which came out a day after the 2008 Draft!!!

Update: McShay is already contradicting himself....

An Open Letter To Todd McShay (The Arena)

Mock Draft Results (Joe Sports Fan)
Matt Ryan Correctly Predicts The Top Six (One Droo Hill)
Photo: Via The Sports Hernia

Posted by Awful Announcing- at 2:05 PM


mike mayock got the first six right and of his top 100 players, 90 were drafted (though not in order).

not too shabby.

Anonymous said...
Apr 30, 2008, 2:54:00 PM  

I'd much rather look at a mock draft, where I can quickly tell where players are projected to be taken, than go through thirty million player profiles to see where each one says a rough range where they could be drafted.

I mean, to treat a mock draft as the gospel for draft prognostication is pretty much like reading a season preview, with projecting standings and all, and being shocked when it isn't necessarily close at the end. It's a prediction, nothing more.

Willmott said...
Apr 30, 2008, 3:47:00 PM  

I would have liked to have seen Emmitt Smiff's Mock Draff.

GMoney said...
Apr 30, 2008, 4:06:00 PM  

How are any of these people better than having a laptop with an internet connection while you watch the draft. I can get better analysis faster from Google, than from Kiper or McShay

SanDiegoBuff said...
May 1, 2008, 2:58:00 PM  

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